The No-B.S. AI Law Blog

Recent analyses suggest that artificial intelligence (AI) is poised to have a significant impact on the global economy in the coming decade. Key reports shed light on the potential economic effects:

A 2021 NBER working paper by Korinek and Stiglitz estimates that AI could boost global economic output by $1.49 trillion to $2.95 trillion over the next 10 years. However, the authors caution that AI threatens to exacerbate global inequality by reversing gains developing countries have made from globalization. They propose policies like progressive taxation, public investment in education and infrastructure, and reforms to global economic governance around issues like tax and intellectual property to help share the benefits of AI more widely. [1]

An Analysis Group study funded by Facebook provides a similar range, estimating AI’s global economic impact over the next 10 years at $1.49 trillion to $2.95 trillion based on benchmarking AI’s potential against the economic impacts of past technologies. The high end of their full estimated range is $5.89 trillion, but they deem this less likely. The study focuses on AI’s potential to enhance productivity across many sectors. [2]

A 2017 McKinsey Global Institute discussion paper provides additional context. It finds that while tech giants are investing heavily in AI, only 20% of surveyed companies have adopted AI at scale. Adoption is greater in more digitized sectors. The paper estimates AI could lead to a 10-15% boost in developed economy GDP by 2030. [3]

However, a 2008 chapter by Eliezer Yudkowsky raises some concerning points about AI risk. Yudkowsky argues there is potential for an advanced AI to recursively self-improve, leading to an “intelligence explosion” and the rapid development of superintelligent AI. Such an AI system, if developed without sufficient safeguards to ensure it remains safe and “friendly” to humans, could pose an existential risk to humanity. Yudkowsky contends that careful work to solve the “AI alignment problem” and create beneficial AI systems should be a key priority. [4]

For legal professionals, the growth of the global AI industry will likely create expanded opportunities related to issues such as:

• Advising AI companies on regulatory compliance, IP, liability, etc. as they scale globally
• Helping companies navigate legal issues around adopting and deploying AI systems
• Assisting policymakers in developing legal frameworks to govern AI development and usage
• Crafting international agreements and standards around AI ethics, transparency, data usage, etc.
• Representing parties in novel legal disputes that arise from AI systems

However, in light of Yudkowsky’s arguments, legal professionals should also carefully consider the societal implications and potential risks of advanced AI systems as the technology progresses. Lawyers can play an important role in ensuring appropriate safeguards and regulations are in place as AI capabilities grow in order to mitigate catastrophic risks. A strong grounding in law, ethics, and increasingly technical knowledge of AI will be crucial.

In summary, AI looks primed to be a major growth industry with expanding legal needs in the coming years. Forward-thinking lawyers should proactively build relevant expertise. But they should also thoughtfully consider their role in ensuring AI progress remains beneficial and existential risks are addressed.

References:
[1] Korinek, A. and Stiglitz, J.E. “Artificial Intelligence, Globalization, and Strategies for Economic Development.” NBER Working Paper 28453. Feb 2021.
[2] Chen, N. et al. “Global Economic Impacts Associated with Artificial Intelligence.” Analysis Group. 2016.
[3] Bughin, J. et al. “Artificial Intelligence: The Next Digital Frontier?” McKinsey Global Institute Discussion Paper. June 2017.
[4] Yudkowsky, E. “Artificial Intelligence as a Positive and Negative Factor in Global Risk.” In Global Catastrophic Risks, Oxford University Press, 2008.